The cost of precious metals on the basis of trading on September 23 in New York rose. Spot prices were: Gold – 1223.90 USD. / Ounce (0.67%), silver – 17.88 dollars. / Ounce (0.28), platinum – 1334 dollars. / Oz (.23 %), palladium – 818.0 USD. / ounce (1.5%).
“Gold prices are on the eve of moving a little above $ 1220 USD. / Ounce, not otherwise received support from the events in the Middle East – analysts Commerzbank. – Together with a number of Arab States United States air strikes against terrorists” Islamic state “in Syria, the thus leading to an increased demand for gold as a safe haven. Meanwhile, back in the beginning of the week the price of gold fell to 1,208 dollars. / ounce, the lowest level since January amid renewed outflows of deposits from the ETF-funds (-1.7 m). gold Market hardly stand on his feet as long as it stops the outflow of deposits from the ETF-funds. “
According to the expert IR “ITinvest” Vasily Oleinik, by a decline in asset purchase program by the Fed and fears of an earlier rise in interest rates in the United States in the past few months, precious metals experienced a significant correction and achieved quite attractive buying levels. “The drop in gold and silver was due not only to the strengthening of the dollar to a basket of world currencies. There are several important factors that put pressure on the quotation of precious metals – is the lack of global geopolitical risks in the world economy and the development of a deflationary scenario in Europe and the United States. decline in inflation, coupled with the recession – is the worst case scenario, so the European regulator tries to avoid it, “- said the expert.
“As a result of falling demand forced producers to reduce selling prices, therefore, the absence of inflation, says a slowdown in economic growth. Money as did not go into the real economy, and do not go. LATEST announced a program to provide cheap money for lending to the private sector as long as failed. the volume taken by the banks under the program TLTRO was much lower than expected. Falling oil prices also reduces the cost of European and American goods, which in turn again leads to a slowing of inflation. in the current environment, when consumers see a steady decline in commodity prices, they stop buying Products and start saving and wait in turn leads to a slowing economy. Why buy goods, if their prices are constantly falling? Concerns acceleration of inflation of the monetary authorities in Europe and the United States in the current environment is quite understandable. Nobody wants a repeat of the Japanese deflationary scenario that developed economy plunged into a long depression “, – says the expert IR ITInvest”.
If we consider that the acceleration of inflation in Europe, as well as in Japan – it is one of the key points, as well as the Federal Reserve will not rush to increase rates until inflation expectations are below the targets, it is possible to bet on what is already in coming quarters, inflation may start to gain momentum. As long as this does not happen, to talk about the economic recovery we are not talking, says V.Oleynik. “If monetary authorities are interested in the growth of the economy, it means that they are interested in the growth of inflation, because one follows from the other, as the price of any goods creates demand and supply. If you take a totally different scenario and a further decline in the world economy, it will lead to an increase in expectations the launch of new incentive programs by regulators. worse will the world economy, the more it will pump up the money and the longer it will keep policy rates at historic minimum marks, “- said the expert.
“It turns out that in any future scenario for the global economy over the next two to four quarters, we have seen the growth of precious metals. If suddenly appear negative, which would provoke a strong correction in the stock markets, it will once again be on hand precious metals. Past few years and in Europe, and the United States experienced a deflationary scenario.’s time to make a bet that this process comes to an end. on the stock markets and bond markets have inflated large “bubbles”, but when they burst, no one knows. If we impose on one graph dynamics of American the S & P 500 and the dynamics of the gold, it perfectly clear where the money usually run when there is a strong fear among investors “, – concluded V.Oleynik.
Analysts at Commerzbank in turn noticed that before there was a demand in silver on a background of the drawdown in prices to a four-year low of 17.34 dollars. / Oz inflow of deposits in the ETF has made more than 60 tons. Palladium continued to follow a downward trajectory, but his progress was stopped down technically important level of 200-day moving average. “However, if the price of palladium will fall below this level, at least temporarily, it can result in technical sales, which will lead to lower prices. Though fundamentals point to a rise in prices in the medium and long term, excess long positions can mean a further decline in the the medium term “, – analysts warn.
On Wednesday at 8:00 MSK gold futures stood at 1,223.74 dollars. / Ounce (0.14%), silver – 17.76 dollars. / Ounce (-0.09%), platinum – 1337.12 USD. / ounce (0.33%), palladium – 818.90 USD. / ounce (0.39%).