Euro will hold up to the level of ECB meeting

Euro will hold up to the level of ECB meeting

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The euro constrains geopolitics

On Friday , May 23, the euro continues to remain at the level of 1,365 dollars is close to U.S. $ 1.37 – equilibrium level , which , according to analysts , will continue to clarify the question of what steps easing ECB will elect the June meeting. Now the global markets remain a deficit trade ideas , and if they are in indirect drivers news confident dynamics demonstrate not solved, says Deputy Head of Research Bank “Zenit” Vladimir Evstifeev .

On the eve of investors paid attention to the publication of protocols with the previous Committee meeting on the U.S. Federal Open Market . Despite the fact that it did not contain anything new , markets reacted to the increasing evidence of regular standby regulator low inflation and the continued need for further stimulate economic activity and the labor market . The minutes also stated the need to work out an exit strategy , since an excessive stimulus could lay medium-term inflation risks.

According to analysts ” Raiffeisenbank ” interest to the protocol of the Fed meeting on 29-30 April caused inconsistent statements by the Fed’s monetary policy further background on the economic recovery. Output protocol is that the Fed does not see a whole the risks of material gain from inflation QE, while the labor market still needs support. Nevertheless, inflation figures for April ( published in mid- May) indicates an increase – from 1.5% to 2.0% ( the target level that most of the committee members did not expect to see earlier 2015. ) , Including due to appreciation of products supply , indicating that the appearance of inflationary risks .

Parish Janet Yellen to head the Fed led to a significant change in the guidelines for the regulation of monetary policy. Now is not the main rate of unemployment ( in April it dropped to 6.3% , below the target of 6.5% ), and the achievement of full employment (according to the Fed , unemployment corresponds to approximately 5.6 %, many economists believe this mark low ) . At the same reasons for the deviation from the traditional rules of regulation have not been identified. Perhaps the Fed fears of an economic slowdown and a negative market reaction to minimize incentives. Analysts ” Raiffeisenbank ” note that never before had the Fed not to raise rates in the presence of the balance sheet as a significant amount of assets.

Some economists believe that the crisis of 2008 to 2009 . led to a structural change in the labor market : the unemployed , lost work time , will never be able to get to his former profession as the economy has changed dramatically. Percentage of people in the total mass of unemployed is now at historical highs (35% ), but its decline is not the Fed’s task ( can not be solved by monetary methods ) . Thus, there is a risk that the Fed will keep soft policy for longer than the required time , creating a noticeable inflation risks . This can result in a sharp rise in key interest rates later ( when the Fed admits a mistake ) with all the negative consequences for the economy and financial markets. But while the music plays , investors continue to buy risk and sell the dollar .

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