It is believed that the market grew only by the Fed. And how come only “tightening” the markets will collapse.
According to another point of view, the dynamics of the market reflects the fundamental economic recovery.
In its note, David Kostin of Goldman presents some observations on the season arrived, which should please the supporters of the latter view. In fact, they show that the market fundamentals – strong and it is reduced, suggesting that growth – the merit of the market, not the Fed.
– According to our estimates, in the second quarter 2014 operating earnings per share of S & P 500 was $ 29.44, an increase of 12% compared to the second quarter 2013 earnings per share S & P 500 is 3% above consensus. Our forecast for the full year, $ 116, implies a decrease of the rising consensus is $ 118, and includes growth in revenues by 7% in the second half of 2014, whereas in the first it was 9%.
– Dohodnost S & P 500 rose to a new record high of 9.1%, going beyond the range of 50 basis points (8.4% and 8.9%) for the first time in 4 years. Moving yield for the four quarters added 17 bps, compared the first quarter of 2014 the sector of information technology and health care have made the greatest contribution to the increase in the return on the index level. Its decline was only one sector – energy, whereas in the secondary sector of consumer goods and services yield remained unchanged.
– Guidelines for the management of the companies were less negative than usual. Only 69% (56 of 81) of the companies provided guidance for the third quarter, below the mid-point of consensus. This coefficient is the first time since 2012, below the historical average, 71% and significantly less than in the previous quarter, 80% -90%.
Kostin also notes that among those prevailing at the conference will increase corporate spending companies (capital expenditures and repayment of bonds) and growing inflationary pressures.
In general, facts and commentary on income talk about restoration of the corporate sector, which strengthens the position of the shares.