About robot drivers “Computerra” wrote a long time and regularly. And progress in this area is fast and self-explanatory – from the first experimental samples raced DARPA Grand Challenge, to today’s robotic army convoys (” Robot driver today soldiers, and tomorrow “trucker”? “) and a willingness to spend on their municipalities streets extensive testing interaction with existing AGV traffic (” Robots and people on the streets of Gothenburg “). But as far as this is important for robotics transport the national economy as a whole?
What is it – really important technological breakthrough, the same as it was the introduction of microprocessors in virtually all spheres of human life? Or convenient, but not such a fundamental innovation – like automatic gearboxes? (The author, like most of those over the rug, loves to nag at those who can ride only on the “machine” …) And maybe purely a marketing gimmick like colored sockets for the phone? Give this question a full answer can be only one way.
First robot cars seemed fun weirdos.
Only by reducing the potential effectiveness of the full implementation of automated driving to the cash prizes, we can answer the question – Is worth powder and shot. And such work took over Fratstsoli Emilio ( Emilio Frazzoli ), Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics at MIT, director of Aerospace built and robotic systems (Aerospace Robotics and Embedded Systems group, ARES), recently more and more attention is paid robotic vehicles.
Why do cars seem more promising than spaceships? And probably because in this area in the near future will be to spin a lot of money. And try to understand what they are, the money generated. Let’s start with the principal. It is believed that the most important living creature instinct is self-preservation instinct. Those with whom it was different, long ago removed from the list who do not live angry, but ruthless natural selection. And here is the first thing a person should be interested. At least in theory.
You go and see the turn overturned bus, skinned and bruised passengers stand on the little body crumpled in the process of tumbling machine ladies: Zadran skirt opens a cheap panties, next scattered notebooks and sketchbook. Nothing supernatural: the driver before driving has not bothered to check that passengers are buckled, and seat belts were tied behind for seating. Nevertheless, the investigation and the court for such a savage violation of traffic rules are indifferent – but it’s true, by the way …
But in some countries, traffic accidents, and especially related injury and death claims involve huge reparations. Of course, a large part of them goes to the lawyers, but victims and their relatives receive very serious amount. For example, in 2011 published in the document the American Automobile Association ” Crashes vs. Congestion – What’s the Cost to Society? losses from accidents incurred by the U.S. economy in 2009 (statistics are collected and processed for a long time – even longer than the stretch trials) valued at approximately $ 300 billion!
Hundreds of billions of dollars! In order to compare these figures with something clear, for example , that the nominal gross domestic product of Ukraine in the past, 2013 was $ 182 billion and we are talking about a huge European country, with rocket and aviation plants, nuclear energy and information technology (в домашнем хозяйстве автора этих строк есть несколько электронных книжек украинского производства). And the Yankees have damage from an accident in more than a half times more than all Ukraine earns!
Robotic Army Palletized Load System is an impressive sight, but the Pentagon budget – only $ 700 billion
And – a significant portion of these accidents is human error caused. This statistic is true for overseas and for our roads (in the case of a talk with the traffic police). A transition to the robot driver is able to remove this factor. The robot will not touch with a place if passengers are not buttoned seat belts (even simple nerobotizirovannaya machine so loathsome beeps when it reaches five miles per hour at the belt is not fastened, that the issue of non-SDA just not worth it).
Robot does not sit behind the wheel not only drunk, but even with a hangover. And the reaction has a lot better than a sober and well-rested person. He is disciplined, not to exceed the speed will not allow “dangerous driving” does not fall into Road rage, road rage in, without chewing toadstools draws quite normal-looking people berserk and furies. Yes and locators with infrared cameras can see at any time and in any weather conditions better people … So to reduce the number of road accident victims robots can very significantly.
Goes on increasing the capacity of the roads and streets. The robot can with perfect, unattainable man accuracy withstand interval between machines communicating over computer networks with neighboring vehicles and the road infrastructure, to move so that the possibility of traffic jams decreased markedly. Furthermore, unwilling to bustling kibervoditel will stick to the speed at which the environmental damage caused by engine operation is minimal – and that damage is estimated for the U.S. in the $ 150 billion per year (” TTI’s 2012 URBAN MOBILITY REPORT , Evaluation of the Public Health Impacts of traffic Congestion: A Health Risk Assessment “).
Next there is a saving on the time and the forces that Americans spend behind the wheel. Driver’s license in the United States has 210 million people. And each of them holds the wheel in the year 465 hours on average. And this is primarily a waste of time in which to take a nap, read the paper or watch a movie. Well – employment, pretty tiring … Fratstsoli estimates of costs at $ 1.5 trillion, estimating the average hour spent for driving a car in half the average U.S. hourly rate is $ 24 – that is, at $ 12.
But the most significant economic result would be the introduction of an AGV emergence of fundamentally new market associated with the transition to service the automotive industry business model. After all, if you tilt the moral dimension (important, by the way: for many foreigners, and to many compatriots taken in car loan more expensive than their income, is essential for raising self-esteem), the problem is simple car – safely, quickly and comfortably deliver us from place to place.
But take care about where to put the car near an apartment building, where to park at the end point of the trip when to come on refueling at service and a car wash – all this trouble quite empty … who would like to avoid. And the transition to robotic machines allow rid of these troubles. Depending on the model chosen, it would be of service or a taxi, limousine or personal (business priorities of service: you pay more – you have a higher priority), able to pull in the parking lot and return to the rider. Or serving other system users.
Such a market Fratstsoli estimates (based on the fact that the AGV will replace four conventional car, saving the owner of each of them for $ 8700 per year) almost fantastic sum of $ 1.8 trillion a year! Well, the total annual economic benefit, in his opinion, will exceed the U.S. alone for $ 3 million For comparison, in 2012 nominal GDP of Russia – a country that occupies one eighth of the habitable land on the planet and the only one capable of delivering to the orbit of people – estimated International Monetary Fund to $ 2.021 trillion.
Is not it, it becomes clear why Professor Fratstsoli car takes more than a spaceship! Before our eyes, there is a new – and the multi-trillion! – Business industry. Generated by information technology and inheriting from them “service” business model. Able to change the lifestyle of millions of people!