Two researchers from the University of Adelaide have created computer models to calculate how many years it will take to reduce the world’s population to an acceptable level, not to create an unnecessary burden on the ecosystem. Conclusions were disappointing: even with strict restriction of births and mass mortality of the population in the event of a cataclysm number of earthlings will not shrink in comparison with today’s at least another 90 years, writes IFLScience .
To construct the models, scientists used statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the census data, assessing different scenarios until 2100.
As it turned out, even if all countries implement the policy of “one family – one child”, the number of people on the planet will remain approximately at the present level. Reduction of the population will not help even a catastrophic extinction of two million people in the middle of the XXI century – if the current trends and in this case, by 2100 the number of Earthlings will be about 8.5 billion.
To his surprise, the researchers also found that even the new five-year world war that will claim the lives of the same proportion of the population, the first and second, virtually no impact on population growth.
Experts estimate that, without the limitations of fertility and cases of mass fatalities to top XXII century, their number will increase to 11-12 billion.Meanwhile they have an excessive burden on the planet’s ecosystems and resources. If fertility rates remain at the current level, the biggest problems with maintaining a growing population, feel the Africa and South Asia, scientists warn.
“The population of the Earth in the last hundred years has grown so rapidly that now live on the planet about 14% of all people who have ever existed. These figures should sober us – said in a press release the study’s lead author Corey Bradshaw. – By a number of reasons it is considered that provide suitable conditions for life for so many people it is impossible, not least because we simply can not feed so many mouths. In addition, it creates an excessive burden on the climate and the environment. “
Bradshaw stresses that in these conditions the most productive ways to reduce this burden – the technological and social innovations. Benefit from competent population policy, implemented now, can only feel quite distant descendants, said second study participant Barry Brook. Correct position for modern humanity, these measures do not help. Therefore, we must focus on how to reduce the impact on the environment and reduce consumption of natural resources.
However, these findings do not mean that you need to abandon all attempts to reduce the birth rate, the researchers emphasize. The widespread introduction of sex education and family planning are already capable of 2050 to reduce the growth of humanity for hundreds of millions.