According to the published results of the Davos World poll, held annually by PriceWaterhouseCoopers General Directors of commercial organizations in the world, forecasts for this year related to the global economy is looking more optimistic than last time. If the results of last poll, only 18% of respondents positively evaluated the dynamics of the world economy, and those who believed that the economic situation will change for the worse, it was 28%, but this year these figures were 44% and 7% respectively. The main reason for such optimism – no doubt, recovery of the U.S. economy.
Second Renaissance in industry
America. It is expected that the U.S. economic growth, which, thanks to the revolution of shale gas and oil in recent years, minimize its dependence on foreign energy, this year will be at least 3%, and it is assumed that in subsequent years the growth rate will remain at this level. Shale revolution has led to the historic deficit reduction in the U.S. current account and as soon as a significant drop in energy costs added technological breakthrough, U.S. competitiveness in the industry began to rise again. In the words of the chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol (Fatih Birol), «America’s trade deficit fell to the level of the 1990s, the manufacturing industry is experiencing a second renaissance.”
Glimmer of hope in the EU
The European Union. Again reached in GDP observed in the period before the global crisis in 2008, Germany appears to be the most successful among the developed economies. After Germany last year for its economic performance affects the UK. Greece in 2013 came to a balanced budget, excluding interest payments. Ireland has earned praise for scrupulous adherence to the IMF program. Thus, the stronger the feeling that Europe is emerging from recession.
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Meanwhile, everyone is waiting to sign the agreement with America Transatlantic free trade area, it is believed that once the agreement enters into force, economic growth in Europe for 10 years is expected to grow by 0.5%.
Abenomika in Japan
Japan. Abe – this is not a new face in Japanese politics. He previously served as Prime Minister of Japan, but he could not achieve a resounding success. However, this time he wants to be a “hero” who will lead Japan out of a 15-year period of deflation, and to achieve this goal Abe realizes extremely ambitious program of quantitative easing. The concept of “Abenomika” refers specifically to this program. In it you will find everything that may come to mind: from full liberalization of electricity generation and distribution to radical changes in the health system and even increase to 30% of women in society (in Japan has always been a woman in the background) and their participation in political and economic life.
Russia. Because shale revolution in America has changed over the years and energy balances existed in Russia there was a need radical revision of the current policy, as revenues from oil and natural gas, which have hitherto formed the backbone of the Russian economy will not be as high in the future. Therefore, it is time to “put on the table” systemic reforms. But do it as follows Putin in the country is not easy.
Emerging markets. Wave, which had risen at the mention of the emerging markets over the past ten years, is now behind us. As seen in the examples of Turkey and Argentina, developing countries now separated from each other. And, although each country will continue to be evaluated with regard to its own economic indicators for developing countries the next 10 years will be more difficult than the previous decade. Because, apparently, the magnetic needle turned back towards developed economies.