17.06.2014 10:30

Currency wars subsided before Fed decision

The past week has been quite severe, as geopolitical tensions increased in different parts of the world, promising a sharp rise in energy prices and the slowdown in the global economy, said the head of the analytical department of the IR “Golden Hills-AM Kapital” Natalia Samoilov. The euro / dollar is under pressure, but do not risk to go below 1.35, as the couple already quite oversold and it looks like the “bottom” is about to be groped. Data on futures positions suggests that the demand for euros at annual lows and has been falling for the past four consecutive weeks.

Last week the euro against the dollar finished lower, closing at 1.3536. The main reason for the weakening of the single currency – the decisions taken at the meeting of the ECB. Nevertheless, losses were limited comments euros ECB representative Benoit Kera, who noted that the central bank probably will not immediately begin to implement programs QE. He pointed out that the ECB has yet to assess the impact of measures taken on the economic situation. On Monday, June 16 to 14:00 MSK euro / dollar pair traded in the range of 1,353-1,354. The calendar of macroeconomic statistics scheduled publication of the index of consumer prices (CPI) for May (final value) – inflation rates determine dynamics of the euro against the dollar. In the U.S., there are data on industrial production for May, says Director of the Investment Trade Department Absolut Bank Andrei Zaitsev.

Global markets ended last week in a neutral manner, the analyst said the bank “Zenith” Cyril Sychev. Changes in stock indexes on both sides of the ocean fluctuated around zero marks, and the growth of geopolitical tensions poured in oil quotes and growing demand for UST.

The main event of the foreign exchange market this week – the June FOMC meeting, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday, June 17. “In the meantime, investors do not expect significant regulator applications and deviations from the previously designated course tapering, except perhaps another reduction forecasts for growth and unemployment, which can add arguments supporters of a balanced approach to the withdrawal of monetary stimulus” – said K.Sychev.