Euro enters a phase of the summer lull

The euro / dollar started a new week exactly: Monday, June 9 in Germany, Switzerland and several other countries in Europe rested on the occasion. However, in such limited conditions macroeconomic calendar gave rise to manifest “bears” and “bulls”. Euro eve noticeably lost ground and fell under the mark of U.S. $ 1.36. Tuesday, June 10 to 8:30 MSK European currency traded at U.S. $ 1,359

As the analyst PSB Alexei Egorov, investors still overestimated events Thursday, June 5, namely the ECB’s decision to ease monetary conditions. “While we do not expect strong activity against the background of the lack of important news,” – said the expert.

Last week turned out to be better than expected economic data on the U.S., China and Japan. Employment report in the U.S. showed that the number of workers in non-agricultural sectors in May increased by 217 thousand (consensus – 213 thousand), and the unemployment rate fell by 10 bps to 6.3%. UST reaction was neutral (ten-year bonds remained at 2.59%). China has shown a significant increase in the trade surplus in the I quarter (almost doubled qoq to $ 36 billion) due to a reduction in imports (-1.6%). Perhaps recently observed low levels of UST yields due to their purchases by China to invest excess dollar liquidity and retain a significant strengthening of the yuan. According to the updated assessment, the Japanese economy in the I quarter increased by 6.7% in annual terms (more than expected 5.6%), mainly due to the rising costs of the corporate sector (+7.6% qoq).

The new week will be more or less in the sense of calm makrostatistiki all key publications investors have already seen, to form a medium-term trading channel in which the euro / dollar is likely to remain under pressure, says a senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrov.