On Friday , May 30 , at the Euro Forex continues to consolidate around the level of $ 1.36 Players are in no hurry to take active steps before become known the outcome of the June meeting of the ECB. While bidders are afraid to sell the dollar against other currencies , although issuing statistics United States has not bode well.
As the analyst ‘s investment department VTB24 Alexei Mikheyev , the second estimate of U.S. GDP growth in the quarter I came sverhprovalnoy . Instead of the projected 0.5% decline decline was 1%. Recall that a month ago the first estimate of GDP dynamics started at plus 0.1 % vs. 1.2% growth . ” That is, if the initial impact of poor weather in the U.S. was estimated so that the I -quarter growth will be feeble 1.2% , according to the second estimate of GDP has dropped by 1% in general , and so it is difficult to explain the significant collapse only bad weather , “- said the expert.
In theory , the market would have to respond to such data fall in the dollar , as they have to moderate the rate of transition Fed to raise rates. But the market acts in his repertoire illogical – virtually no reaction to these data was not.
Here , according to A.Miheeva appropriate to draw an analogy . So, in I quarter of 2011. U.S. GDP also showed a decline – by 1.3% , and in the coming quarters before and after the reference indicator showed high growth . At the same time in Germany as in I quarter of 2011. , Conversely , was shown very high GDP growth – at 1.5 % per annum. And now, in Germany in the I quarter of 2014 . marked the strongest growth – 0.8% QoQ – in opposition to the U.S. recession . When the pair EUR / USD 4 May 2011. showed a maximum at around 1.49 , which followed by a sharp decline of nearly 10 pieces down – to 1.3970 , and then return back to 1.4690 . All summer 2011. euro / dollar fluctuated in a wide “outset ” 1,39-1,46 , and went down in the autumn , when there were problems in the euro-zone economy .
As the experts in turn IR ” Veles Capital ” , published data on U.S. GDP does not indicate a strong trend – negative figures became largely due to lower investment activity on the background of extreme cold weather , as well as growth in imports due to the strengthening dollar and the reduction of defense spending in connection with the government’s efforts to scale back spending budget.
In the course of trading on Friday the new drivers for the market may be data on retail sales in Germany, and in the evening – the value of the index of purchasing managers in Chicago and the University of Michigan confidence index , the expert added , “Velez Capital .”