To all the problems in Europe will soon be added another – long forgotten by Greece. Agency Standard & Poor’s warned that after 15 months of Athens defaulted.
Greece – a country with which the Old World began the sovereign debt crisis, which is not just saved, and the bonds that paid insurance (CDS). How did it happen that Greece is again on the verge of bankruptcy, as under the supervision of foreign creditors it has successfully fulfilled the necessary structural reforms?
Bloomberg agency quoted S & P analyst Marie-France Reynaud, who argues that in the next 15 months, the country will not be able to finance their spending. Is Europe is so much attended to the problem of deflation and economic growth that does not keep track of their little southern country? Try to understand.
S & P evaluates the needs of Greece in financing over the next 15 months to 43 billion euros. These figures just lies the main point. The fact is that even if Greece will sell bonds this year and next, the money is still not enough to cover the financing needs. Perhaps Athens could sell more bonds, but the market has changed a lot, and it is unlikely that there is an investor who wishes to invest in Greek bonds, knowing all the risks of no return of their funds.
HOW MUCH WILL GREECE ON THE MARKET
Standard & Poor’s expects that Greece will attract 5 billion euros from the sale of bonds to international investors, another 20 billion euros – in the domestic market, 12 billion euros it receives from international lenders including the IMF. At the same time, S & P also expects that Greece will repay 3 billion euros on bonds investors who have not agreed to the restructuring in 2012, the way, if it does not, it is possible that we will see another story involving American ships .
Well, maybe that idealistic picture of Greece, which in recent months had managed to create a variety of experts and the media, will cease to be such. Although it is not the fact. More recently, the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said that if the country’s political stability is maintained, in the next few months, she would not need “saving” loans and debt issue will be finally resolved. Furthermore, he added that after the ECB will complete the stress tests for local banks, the liquidity in the financial system recovers. All these statements are very much in contrast with the statements of the rating agency, and it gives food for thought.
It is worth noting that Mr. Samaras in his statements leave the so-called loophole: he said that everything is possible “while maintaining political stability.” Therefore, according to the Prime can be taken no more than populism.
If you look at the situation as a whole, everything is back to normal. And, oddly enough, the problems that a long time silent, appear at the most inopportune moment. Improper, of course, Europe. As if someone pulls the card out of the sleeve.
Political stability in Greece can be broken at any time. People can just go out to the streets and demand change of government, as it was in 2010- 2011’s. They just might decide that they have had enough, and they want to live without severe restrictions. It is clear that the people themselves are almost never went nowhere, but there are invisible forces that always know when and where you need to organize mass unrest.
European countries have completed the transfer of funds to Greece under existing agreements at the end of this year, the IMF – in 2016
Since 2010, Greece has already received from the “troika” of international lenders (the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)), the two aid package totaling 240 billion euros.
“Greece is now standing on its own feet, and we are confident that we will not need a new program of assistance,” – said in August Samaras.
The Prime Minister said that the government will soon offer “their own structure to continue reforms” for the period after the completion of the existing agreements with creditors.
Earlier, the international rating agency Moody’s upgraded the rating of Greece by two notches to “Caa3” to “Caa1”, noting a significant improvement in fiscal performance and stabilization of the economic outlook. Estimated Moody’s, Greece’s GDP will grow by 0.4% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015